Daily Awards Buzz & Rumors: Friday, February 22, 2008

David Poland, George Clooney (!), Anne Thompson, Jeffrey Wells, Sasha Stone and David Ansen make their Oscar predictions… Defamer on the “Juno” bandwagon… The Oscar Igloo on Best Actress… Karina Longworth on Hollywood’s string-pullers… David Carr is Oscar Crazy… Cinematical on youthful lust for Ellen Page… Indiewire on “The Counterfeiters” and Oscar night…The Vulture goes back to Julian Schnabel… The Playlist is thankful for a silent punditocracy.

“Journalists have been left spinning their wheels like gerbils in a show biz cage for weeks.  This week’s laugher is ‘Juno’ as the threat to ‘No Country.’ No way. God bless the film. God bless Peter Rice & Co, who delivered a mainstream comedy right out of ApatowVille that is not only the highest grossing film in Searchlight’s remarkable history, but which will come close to doubling the domestic gross of the #2 film, Sideways. But Oscar doesn’t give the award to non-showbiz comedies… It is likely to be as boring and pleasant an Oscar night as any in memory.” – David Poland takes a final look at the Oscar contenders at Movie City News

“I thought Daniel Day-Lewis had the best performance of the year. Then I saw ‘La Vie En Rose.’ Marion Cotillard does an old person trying to be young, instead of what everyone does – a young person trying to be old. It’s a stunning performance. But there is no way Daniel Day-Lewis won't win.” – George Clooney makes his own Oscar predictions at Time

“Surprisingly, George Clooney makes his picks in Time. He’s astute, but I don’t think supporting actress is Amy Ryan – it’s either Tilda Swinton or Cate Blanchett – and I’m sticking to my cockamamie Ronald Harwood theory in adapted screenplay. (Revealing your votes is supposed to be a no-no, but hey, Clooney can do whatever he wants.)” – Anne Thompson begs to differ with Clooney’s predix at Variety

“HE final, final Oscar predictions: BEST PICTURE: ‘No Country for Old Men,’ although I’d like credit for saying it’s vaguely possible that ‘Michael Clayton’ or ‘Juno’ could sneak a win. (Although it probably won’t happen.)” – Jeffrey Wells going out on a limb to hedge his bets at Hollywood Elsewhere

“I have been getting that funny feeling too but I can’t quite get a handle on it. Based on everything I’ve learned and everything I know about the Oscars, no other film has even a smidge of a chance to overtake ‘No Country for Old Men.’ Even ‘Crash’ had the SAG ensemble and the Editors. So far, the Eddie and the ASC are the only two significant guilds ‘No Country’ has lost. That is pretty much unheard of folks. If any other film wins on Sunday night you can just toss your rules out of the window because nothing will mean anything and there is no point to even looking at the past to decide the race.” – Sasha Stone takes a last-minute temperature reading at Awards Daily

“The conventional wisdom may not apply to a field filled with more than the usual share of unconventional movies. Mainstream commercial movies are barely a blip on the Academy Awards landscape. Little ‘Juno’ is by far the biggest hit among the five best-picture nominees, and the only one of the five that's considered a major studio movie, Warner Bros.’s ‘Michael Clayton,’ actually isn't: it was a pickup, financed by an outside company. The Oscars have become the Independent Spirit Awards on a bigger budget.” – David Ansen makes his picks at Newsweek

“While we seemingly hear the phrase ‘it’s the closest Oscar race in years’ each and every awards season, this year it might actually be true. No one movie stands out as a front-runner. ‘No Country For Old Men’ is confusing, ‘There Will Be Blood’ is looooong and grim, 6 people saw ‘Michael Clayton’ and ‘Atonement’ feels like an afterthought. That leaves ‘Juno.’ Just because you sit in your little Silverlake apartment hating on all that overwritten dialogue doesn’t mean the rest of the country didn't find it utterly charming.” – Nick Malis hops about “the ‘Juno’ train” at Defamer

“The real surprise of the category here was the inclusion of Laura Linney for her work in ‘The Savages.’ She was almost completely ignored by every single voting body except the Academy. That could mean that they really liked her performance and wanted to right a wrong. The fact that her film is also up for Best Original Screenplay means that it doesn’t necessarily have limited support, and she looms as the darkest horse in this race.” – Joey Magidson gives an overview of the Best Actress nominees at The Oscar Igloo

“Isn’t it a little weird that Variety editor Tim Gray doesn’t actually make a Best Picture prediction in the Best Picture prediction video? Does this give credence to the ‘‘Juno’ is the new ‘Crash’’ nightmare scenario that’s been floating around? Or is he just contractually not allowed to disappoint his advertisers?” – Karina Longworth wonders about the big picture at Spout

“Here’s the thing. Everybody can make like a sour ball before the event, but it has its own dynamism once Jon Stewart walks on stage. In what may be his longest bet of the season, but the Bagger is thinking this is going to be an oddly entertaining show with a lot of twists and turns. The lack of some of the precursor events creates mystery and, as red carpet host Robert Osborne recently said to him, should leave regular folks hungry for a little glitter and competition.” – David Carr officially has Oscar Fever at the New York Times

“If it’s believable that women would find Seth Rogen’s character in ‘Knocked Up’ sexually attractive, it's certainly plausible that high school guys would be hot for a smart girl like ‘Juno,’ even if she’s not a blond cheerleader with big boobs. What do you folks think? Do guys go for the smart, sassy, somewhat dorky chicks, even if they’re petite and perky rather than Hollywood-hot (whatever that is)?” – Kim Voynar goes after Jeff Wells pet theory regarding Ellen Page at Cinematical

“‘The Counterfeiters’ is the bread and butter of the Academy, not to mention film festival audiences everywhere, and as such, seems to have been designed solely to win plaudits: a Holocaust drama that effectively mixes raw, ‘realistic’ violence with a narrative of moral uplift that prizes individual strengths, inferring that overcoming is possible; a main character who’s just the right, ingratiating mix of stoic and rascally; a litany of latter-day Euro cinema-of-quality cliches predicated upon a central moral conundrum that grants the film its supposed complexity; a German filmmaker grappling with the demons of his own nation and family (Ruzowitzky's grandparents were Nazi collaborators) and daring to depict the impossible.” – Michael Koresky reviews a foreign language nominee at Indiewire

“In the end, I suppose all Oscar enthusiasts should be pleased with the simple fact that they'll be watching a fully-executed, picket-free ceremony Sunday night. And if a song from ‘Enchanted’ wins or a poorly-produced montage runs a little long, remember that you could have been watching Billy Bush announce the winners from the set of ‘Access Hollywood.’” – Peter Knegt finds a silver lining at Indiewire

“It’s tough to imagine this Oscar going to anyone but the Coens, but Paul Thomas Anderson and Julian Schnabel do have devoted followings. Plus, who doesn't want to see Schnabel accept an award in his pajamas?” – The Vulture can't quit Julian Schnabel at New York magazine

“Voting for the Academy Awards officially closed on Tuesday (or Wed at 12:00 a.m.) so at least we’ll get some respite to pundits thinking they can detect every [freaking] imperceptible shift in the wind over the collective conscious of Oscar voters, and lord hearing everyone chime in with their two cents gets to be rather infuriating after awhile.” The Playlist will be glad to be rid of Oscar prognosticators until next awards season (We know the feeling.)