Handicapping the winners - The Top 36

Only a fool would try to predict the ultimate outcome of American Idol without having seen all the contestants.  But these times make fools of us all.  So try I must. My complete tip sheet will be coming soon, but before too much time expires I wanted to go on the record with my predictions of who will win and who will lose and in what order.   Last year, I predicted Syesha would win it all, so that should show what my track record is worth.  In any event, for the historical record, here is my prediction from first place to 36th where the brave souls of Season 8 will finish.   

(Of course the order of finish for contestants eliminated in the semi-final rounds has little real meaning since we do not know the order of finish at those levels, but let these rankings represent my rough sense of where in the Idol firmament they stand.)

36. Nathaniel Marshall

35. Nicholas Mitchell

34. Matt Beizke

33. Jeanine Valies

32. Casey Carlson

31. Stevie Wright

30. Felicia Barton

29. Alex Wagner-Trugman

28. Tatiana Del Toro

27. Ricky Braddy

26. Allison Iraheta

25. Brent Keith

24. Von Smith

23. Kristen McNamara

22. Jackie Tohn

21. Junot Joyner

20. Arianna Afsar

19. Ann Marie Boskovitch

18. Kendall Beard

17. Jasmine Murray

16. Steven Fowler

15. Kai Kalama

14. Kris Allen

13. Anoop Desai

And to see my Top 12, continue after the jump.

Rushfield Review: 12 await the reaper

The reaper came early to "American Idol" this year. No, he was not technically with us tonight, but his table is already set for his Wednesday night reservation, when he will feast on the dreams of a few singers who dared to reach for greatness, raising his glass while his lackey, Angel of Death Seacrest wields the remorseless scythe.

All that comes Wednesday, but his icy shadow was upon us tonight, as with every missed note, with every forgettable song choice, eyes in the Idol dome could not but turn to that waiting table; candelabras already lighted, the wine already poured.

It wasn’t always like this. Yes, the semifinal rounds involved some bloodshed, but in the Top 24s of recent years, the gods demanded a mere four virgin sacrifices a week, not these epic proportions of nine singers to fall Wednesday. (Some will be called back across the river Styx for the wild-card round.)

What's more, in the past, after the Top 24 round, one could go to bed contentedly knowing that the odds of elimination for each contestant were so long that the ruling classes of Idol would rarely feel the blade; in all likelihood the serf and the untouchable classes would provide the needed cannon fodder. These were the weeks when we could sit back and, at our leisure, get to know the greater contestants while the lesser ones were, four by four, cleared out of our way.

Phil Stacey Blog: Out of the gate

I’d like to briefly discuss what makes performing on "American Idol" so difficult.  Until last season, contestants did not use monitors.  It was near impossible to hear yourself sing.  If you do not understand, get in your car and turn the radio as loud as you possibly can and try to sing along.  It’s hard.  Every special guest that comes to sing brings in a monitoring system so they can perform to the best of their abilities.  The contestants do not get that edge.

Add onto that the knowledge that Simon will eventually cut you down in front of millions of people.  It doesn’t matter if you are Kelly, Carrie, or even David Cook, no one has ever gone without being insulted by Simon..  No one.

On to tonight’s performances…   When I saw the list of contestants, I felt like the producers kind of stacked the deck.  A lot of them who sang tonight have been featured a great deal in previous episodes.  However, there are only three that I have predicted to be finalists: Danny Gokey, Anoop Desai, and Alexis Grace… I am pleased to say they all delivered. 

Surprises – Tatiana Del Toro.  I looked down while she was singing and what I heard took me by surprise.  She can sing!  Suddenly, I look up and see this attractive young girl who is not butchering a Whitney song!  Unbelievable.  I’m starting to like this girl… Ha!

I felt bad for a couple of singers tonight, Stevie Wright in particular.  This poor girl was ripped!  I have definitely been there.  I wish I could say don’t worry about it, but giving a bad performance on "Idol" is the kiss of death to your music career -– unless you get a chance to perform again to make up for it.  I can’t imagine her getting that chance.

If you aren’t tuning in this season, you are missing out.  This season is full of characters, and they are good!  It’s almost like it was casted.  Definitely my favorite season so far -– not to diss last season.  They were great too…

My picks:  Of course, Danny, Anoop, and Alexis… possibly Tatiana.  We’ll see how I do.

On a side note:  I visited Disney World last week for the premiere of the American Idol Experience.  It was a blast!  And Carrie Underwood and David Cook sang a duet together.  David held his own – no joke!  He was incredible!

-- Phil Stacey

photo:Fox

Rushfield Review: 36 singers to lead us

The season of tears and atonement behind us, at last we know whose names have been written in the Book of Life.  After half a year of wandering the desert, Idol Nation has at last found the 36 warriors who will lead us forward.  

In the Shinto religion, the afterlife is a process of the soul losing its individuality, merging with a common ancestor god.  For the past five weeks (of TV time -- six months offscreen time), these 36 have completed the reverse of this process, gaining their individuality and thus achieving immortality. Through sheer exercise of personal will they  rose forth from the featureless human tide that poured into the stadiums to answer the Idol call.  A mere three weeks ago, they were one in the very-hard-to-keep-track-of parade of stories and song snippets who nervously shuffled before the judges. Just last week, they were among the scores of cannon fodder sent storming the Omaha Beach of Hollywood Week. 

And now, when the smoke clears, the brave survivors who walk forward (doing the Top 36 dance at the end of the show) come forth as heroes, each (or almost each) finally a person in their own right, with their own trail of tears, their own musical style and, beginning tonight, their own fanbase.  Before tonight, they were one of some tens of thousands, hundreds or scores of hopeless.  From here on in, their names will forever be remembered when in years to come we huddle around the fire and tell stories of Season Eight.  And forever shall their images hang in that sacred hall of immortals -– the contestants galleries on Americanidol.com.

There is little drama more harrowing in our culture than the Green Mile episode -– so dubbed for its resemblance to the solitary walk prisoners must take to their execution.  Having been brought to the very precipice of realizing a life beyond their wildest dreams, with greatness hanging in the balance against banishment and a return to eternal anonymity -- at that very point are they forced to walk alone to receive their fate, the moment dangled out endlessly by the tormenting judges (in a plushly upholstered “judges’ mansion” chosen, it seems, to give the sense of being received in an audience on Mt. Olympus).

Meet Your Top 36: The List

Here they are, with links to more info.  Somewhere in the column below, is the name of our next champion.

Kris Allen
Arianna Asfar
Kendall Beard
Anne Marie Boskovich
Ricky Braddy
Matt Breitzke
Casey Carlson
Megan Corkrey
Tatiana Del Toro
Anoop Desai
Stephen Fowler
Matt Giraud
Danny Gokey
Alexis Grace
Mishavonna Henson
Allison Iraheta
Junot Joyner
Kai Kalama
Brent Keith
Adam Lambert
Jesse Langseth
Nate Marshall
Scott MacIntyre
Kristen McNamara
Nick Mitchell
Jasmine Murray
Jorge Nunez
Joanna Pacitti
Lil Rounds
Michael Sarver
Von Smith
Jackie Tohn
Alex Wagner Trugman
Taylor Vaifanua
Jeanine Vailes
Stevie Wright

--Richard Rushfield

Photo:Fox

The Contenders: Meet Casey Carlson

Smokin' Season 8 ... "American Idol" contestant Casey Carlson is a bikini girl without the attitude. FHM has called her " 'American Idol's' sexist ever contestant," and she can sing too! For her Kansas City audition, the 22-year-old University of Minnesota student performed Vanessa Carlson's "A Thousand Miles." She had Paula sitting on the edge of her seat and gained instant approval from Simon, who quickly stated "I like you." Casey Carlson got yeses from all four, which of course sent her to Hollywood.

The Minneapolis swimsuit model is featured in a Campus Girls USA "Girls of the Big 10" 2009 calendar. Proceeds from the sales benefit the fight against breast cancer. She has a MySpace page, and several fan sites. Her music taste ranges from David Cook to indie bands such as Belle and Sebastian and The Postal Service.

Like Paula, we just can't wait to see what cute Casey Carlson does next.

--Leslie Anne Wiggins

Revelations from the front-runners list

Looking back on the post-auditions "American Idol" front-runners list I compiled last week, a few things stand out:

- How much harder it was than I thought it would be to narrow it down to a baker's dozen.  There were easily 10 others whom I could have put on the list, including Anoop Desai, Anne Marie Boskovitch, Alexis Grace, Arianna Asfar, Casey Carlson, Jasmine Murray, Junot Joiner, Kendall Beard, Mishavonna Henson and Stevie Wright.

- How, as noted by many commenters on the earlier post, contenders with tragic back stories seem to be the majority this year, if not the unanimous majority.

- How, despite a pretty deep talent pool, there is no front-runner.

- That there are no obvious second-generation David Cooks or David Archuletas.

- That a fair number of the contestants we've seen so far are fairly obvious cannon fodder for Hollywood Week.

NOTE:  A previous version of this item erroneously referred to the ban on instruments as a new development this season. Thanks to commenters Donna Howard and IdolWatcher for setting me straight and pointing out that instruments were not allowed last year either.

-- Richard Rushfield

Photo: Fox