Smart money is against a college football playoff

Barack Obama isn't done campaigning -- for a college football playoff. On Sunday he discussed the topic on "60 Minutes" (video above). He first brought it up during a halftime interview on "Monday Night Football" the day before he was elected.

So will it actually happen?

The Wiz of Odds gathered several reactions here, but nobody seems to be chanting "yes we can" quite yet. Chris Dufresne from the LA Times says no way, no how -- certainly not in Obama's first term. And if you're the type to put your money where your mouth is, fellow gamblers are leaning against it.

BetOnline.com posted this exotic wager:

"Will Barack Obama see a college football playoff system incorporated during his presidency?"

As of Wednesday night, "no" was the popular pick, listed at -300 (for non-gamblers, that means you have to risk $300 to win $100). "Yes" paid out at +225 (risk $100 to win $225).

If the BCS isn't exciting enough this year, maybe betting on its downfall is.

Skeptics could have jumped on at -250 before the public started betting it up. "People don't think it's going to happen," said Stan Simmons, who helps set lines for the site. "The line, in my opinion, is still pretty low. Even though you probably have four to eight years ... I don't believe there'll be a playoff system."

Unlike more common bets like point spreads and over/unders, the experts had to think outside the box to come up with an opening line on this one. "There are a lot of variables that go with it," explained Simmons. One of the things his company discussed Wednesday was the real and perceived authority of government, including what happened with the recent Congressional steroid hearings. "You have to factor in that Obama's a politician. Is he saying it because he wants to say all the right things, or is he actually going to press on with this? We've heard a lot of people say this sort of thing, but nobody with the type of power that this guy has."

Regardless of Obama's influence, keep in mind that he doesn't have to make it happen personally, a playoff just has to happen while he's in office. People who bet "yes" may wind up with an unusual incentive to vote for a second term.

If you make your way over to BetOnline.com, go to the future/prop bets and make sure to check out the exotics. Here are some of the other unconventional wagers you'll find (as of Wednesday night):

• Will a team from the state of Texas win the BCS Championship? If you think so, they're paying 5-1. If you think not, you can risk 8-1.
• Will any of the big three U.S. automakers (GM, Ford, Chrysler) merge before Dec. 31, 2009? "Yes" is at -400, while "no" is the underdog at +300.
• Who will win Miss World? Miss Ukraine is the favorite with 7-1 odds, followed by Miss Spain at 8-1. Miss USA is 30-1. Miss Mongolia is 200-1.
• Who will be the next pope? Oscar Rodriguez Maragiaga of Honduras is the favorite with 7-1 odds. The best hope for an American is Francis George at 80-1.

-- Adam Rose

Comments

[gerrrg]

If USC ends up #4 in the nation but left out of any BCS game -or- USC gets leapfrogged by a 2-loss team for the NC game, a playoff system will be here.

I think it's an even bet that Disney goes under the spotlight before 2010 for their monopolistic behavior, since we're talking 'bout the BCS.

[donvey lindsey]

we need a playoff

[Bobak]

I don't think that its likely, but I also felt Dufresne's article was weak because it seemed to assume no contract is amendable. When the stars align, and (more importantly) parties agree with each other (e.g. there is a change in all opinions towards a pro-playoff system), contracts will be legally, acceptably changed to reflect the new desires. It could, and likely would, happen if someone can convince all parties involved that the money would be more than they're currently getting. I believe finance is really the only thing holding the playoff question back --and that's because no one's seriously sat down and crunched the numbers in a major study. The other reasons are window-dressing --after all, no college president has proposed putting college basketball into a bowl system to reduce the amount of missed class time.