Full bowl scenarios for USC

At this point, it's pretty simple for USC:

• Scenario 1: Beat UCLA. Result is USC vs. Penn State in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena on Jan. 1.
• Scenario 2: Lose to UCLA. Result is USC vs. the Big 12's third-place team in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego on Dec. 30.

In other words, it'll be a local New Year's Eve.

The ironic part is that whoever winds up as the Big 12's third-place team -- Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma* -- will probably provide a better game than Penn State. By beating the Bruins, the Trojans actually condemn themselves to a lesser bowl opponent.

Nice work, football gods.

Some Trojan fans hold out hope that a pollster miracle could jump the Trojans into the title game. At this point, the SEC champ (winner of Alabama-Florida) will be a lock, and the Big-12 is going to have two or three teams with a legitimate claim on the other spot. That's not to say that USC's claim is illegitimate -- in fact, it's very legit. But it just won't happen. It's not unlike the 2004 season, when a 13-0 Auburn got left behind for the title game and USC ripped apart Oklahoma in Miami.

Speaking of the Big 12, the trio of one-loss teams (Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma) will be represented in the conference championship game by whichever has a higher BCS ranking on Sunday afternoon. They will face three-loss Missouri, who fell to Kansas on Saturday.

Seriously, how hard have the football gods been hitting the sauce?

If Mizzou pulls out a major upset, that still leaves a pair of one-loss Big 12 teams that are popular with the voters. USC would probably stay ahead of Texas Tech, but either Oklahoma or Texas would likely stay ahead of the Trojans even if shut out of its conference championship.

-- Adam Rose
Photo by Mark J. Terrill/AP

* UPDATE: Lost amid a lot of chest-thumping comments, CM points out that the Big 12 will likely have two teams in BCS games, sending the third-place team to the Cotton Bowl and the fourth-place team to the Holiday Bowl. In that case, yes, PSU-USC would be better than Oklahoma State-USC and probably better than Mizzou-USC. Of course, what if Mizzou wins the conference championship?

This raises another glaring issue: the Pac 10's bowl tie-ins. Remember that those contracts expire in January.

Comments

[JIMPSU]

Penn State can be equally disappointed at not playing for the MNC. They are a last second field goal, away, in inclement weather, with a concussed QB, from playing in the MNC. Don't sell this team short, and who's to say the AP doesn't break rank and consider these two one loss teams just as good as the Big 12, SEC champ one loss teams. (Assuming Fla. beats Ala.)

[matt]

It's retarded to say that penn state beat oregon state so that makes them better then usc. Usc lost to an unranked team on the road and so did penn state. enough with the penn state is going to kill usc because they beat oregon state. IT's funny how every year we hear big 10 people talk about how their team is going to kill usc in the rose bowl, and then every year usc kick the ____ out of them. The game is basically a home game for usc, and every time the big 10 comes out here they get spanked, and usc has their best defense ever, so you better start believing in something more then some stupid oregon state equation if you think penn state has a chance.

[DMS]

USC will absolutely demoralize PSU by a MINIMUM of 3 TD's. It will be ugly for PSU.

[BushLeinart04]

Wow, I didn't know so many Amish people had computers. USC's defense held Oregon, the #8 ranked offense in the nation, a team that put up 65 on Oregon State, to only 10 points. How many high-power offenses has Penn State shut down? Michigan? Temple? And your out of conference schedule? Coastal Carolina? Syracuse? Pretty tough. We don't schedule cupcakes to pad our stats. USC's track record against "elite" Big 10 teams speaks for itself.

[Jamason Baretta]

PSU will get spanked by usc regardless of who usc lost too, PSU would get spanked by either of the three one loss teams in the big twelve south BAD. The lions are the most overated team in there conference USC is truley the only legit team in the pac10 and for those talking down on the big twelve and our defense, i guess if TEXAS OU of TEXAS TECH put 75 points up on PSU defense wont really matter anyway put that in perspective, the best possible scenarios for the NTG would be TEXAS vs. FLORIDA PSU would not attract viewers and as much as i hate the computers they would NEVER put a one loss PSU in the big game you guys should really face someone like missouri or cal or lsu then maybe you would be able to compete a little still ould be a loss for you though WAKE UP PSU

[Amos Stoltzfus]

Welp, being a country amish hick, I don't know too much about you big city boys from California, but I do know that the all time series between your Men of Troy and our Amish hicks is tied and that our Amish hicks have the all time BEST bowl winning percentage in history.

That being said, we are just honored and tickled to death to share the field, or cow pasture as we call it, with your worldy, superior team. While I know that your team is superior to us in everything, please don't get mad when my buggy trudges along at 12 mph on the 405.

Thanks again for just letting us grace the field with your most amazing team. We are truly honored.

[David in Florida]

"We don't schedule cupcakes to pad our stats. "

You don't have to. They're built into your conference schedule automatically.

[JIMPSU]

yeah those two powerhouses in Washington did nothing for your stats. Not to mention Notre Lame who, by the way, lost to SYRACUSE.

[Ron]

PSU is forgetting another common opponent. The buckeyes.

PSU beat them by a touchdown. We beat them by 32. You scored 13 sorry points. We rested our starters half way through the third quarter.

Selective memory?

[Rusty Buckets]

Dear Justin,

Since Carroll took over as head coach at the beginning of the 2001 season, USC has 15 total losses, 6 of which came during the first season. Only one of those losses has been by more than 7 points (an 11-point defeat at Notre Dame during that miserable first season). The next worst losses were each by 7 points at Kansas State in 2002 and at Oregon last season.

So it's laughable to hear you talk about "spanking" USC. Penn State will be lucky to score in double digits. Good luck and don't forget to come back to this blog after the game has been played (but I know you won't).

-Mr. Buckets

[David in Florida]

"PSU is forgetting another common opponent. The buckeyes.

PSU beat them by a touchdown. We beat them by 32. You scored 13 sorry points. We rested our starters half way through the third quarter.

Selective memory?"

USC played them at home without OSU's top two offensive players (QB & RB) and PSU played OSU on the road with those two players.

Selective memory?

[Jonathan K]

"USC played them at home without OSU's top two offensive players (QB & RB) and PSU played OSU on the road with those two players."

Oh, I didn't realize that their two best offensive players being on the field was the reason Penn State could only score 13 points against them.

Yes, USC got them at home. Penn State also got Oregon State at home. What this proves is that home field is a big advantage.

I agree that I'd rather USC play an SEC team (mostly just to shut up that conference) or Texas or Oklahoma. But I do think Penn State will be a much better game than Texas Tech would.

But for all of the Penn State fans saying how they are going to CRUSH USC. USC has never been soundly beaten under Pete Carroll. And it's not going to start in the Rose Bowl.

[Jonathan K]

Also, Adam, I think you are wrong in your bowl prediction. I see no reason USC wouldn't get a BCS at-large bid if ucla somehow pulled the upset.

Currently a two-loss Ohio State team is in line to be selected over an undefeated Boise State team. It's not fair, but that's just the way it is.

If USC were to lose, it's unlikely voters would drop them below an Ohio State team they crushed when they both have the same record. So USC would be ranked right behind Boise State in the BCS standings and would be chosen over them.

But I'll take the Rose Bowl over having to lose to the bruins.

[Rick]

Obama will be changing all of this - college football playoff system - then we will truly have a national champion - until then we can continue with this type of bashing. PSU over USC (that is if they get by UCLA!)