Full bowl scenarios for USC

At this point, it's pretty simple for USC:

• Scenario 1: Beat UCLA. Result is USC vs. Penn State in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena on Jan. 1.
• Scenario 2: Lose to UCLA. Result is USC vs. the Big 12's third-place team in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego on Dec. 30.

In other words, it'll be a local New Year's Eve.

The ironic part is that whoever winds up as the Big 12's third-place team -- Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma* -- will probably provide a better game than Penn State. By beating the Bruins, the Trojans actually condemn themselves to a lesser bowl opponent.

Nice work, football gods.

Some Trojan fans hold out hope that a pollster miracle could jump the Trojans into the title game. At this point, the SEC champ (winner of Alabama-Florida) will be a lock, and the Big-12 is going to have two or three teams with a legitimate claim on the other spot. That's not to say that USC's claim is illegitimate -- in fact, it's very legit. But it just won't happen. It's not unlike the 2004 season, when a 13-0 Auburn got left behind for the title game and USC ripped apart Oklahoma in Miami.

Speaking of the Big 12, the trio of one-loss teams (Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma) will be represented in the conference championship game by whichever has a higher BCS ranking on Sunday afternoon. They will face three-loss Missouri, who fell to Kansas on Saturday.

Seriously, how hard have the football gods been hitting the sauce?

If Mizzou pulls out a major upset, that still leaves a pair of one-loss Big 12 teams that are popular with the voters. USC would probably stay ahead of Texas Tech, but either Oklahoma or Texas would likely stay ahead of the Trojans even if shut out of its conference championship.

-- Adam Rose
Photo by Mark J. Terrill/AP

* UPDATE: Lost amid a lot of chest-thumping comments, CM points out that the Big 12 will likely have two teams in BCS games, sending the third-place team to the Cotton Bowl and the fourth-place team to the Holiday Bowl. In that case, yes, PSU-USC would be better than Oklahoma State-USC and probably better than Mizzou-USC. Of course, what if Mizzou wins the conference championship?

This raises another glaring issue: the Pac 10's bowl tie-ins. Remember that those contracts expire in January.

Comments

[sam smith]

adam rose, you don't know what you're talking about. lesser opponent with penn state. remember, penn state lost in a last second fg to iowa. remember penn state crushed oregon state. remember oregon state beat usc. the only advantage usc will have is playing at home...it's a huge advantage, but penn state will prevail in a tight battle. big ten teams actually play defense compared to pac ten teams.... and yes usc beat ohio state, but so did penn state at the horseshoe which isn't an easy place to play...so don't be so brash to think that usc is that much better than penn state....penn state fans are just glad that oregon state lost, so we don't have to play them again!

[vj]

Do you really believe that Big 12 would give a better match up then Penn state, think about what Penn state did to Oregon state, and who has USC played all year, Virginia? Notre dame?

Lesser bowl opponent,

[ncaa09]

Really? I think you underestimate Joe Pa and the team. I notice you have to be over 13 to post. They should extend that rule to the writers too.

[John Sharkey]

Adam, I doubt there is any team in the Pac 10 that could give Penn State a good game. Remember we blew out Oregon State, who beat USC.

[dave]

Hey you better hope to lose to UCLA Penn State will spank your A - - If you think the beavers rolled you up PSU ain't playin. This Penn State team is on a mission and ain't no joke pray you lose to UCLA.

[carl sacchetti]

Adam,
You give USC too much credit. SOS weaker than PSU. Common opponent, PSU won by 31, USC lost by 6. Why does USC belong in National Title game any more than PSU? Big 12 has no defense. Both USC and PSU have balance on both sides. Will be a much better game than USC against big 12

[smokeybandit]

"The ironic part is that whoever winds up as the Big 12's third place team -- Texas, Texas Tech, or Oklahoma -- will probably provide a better game than Penn State. By beating the Bruins, the Trojans actually condemn themselves to a lesser bowl opponent."

This seems to be the going opinion in the LA media and among the USC players and fans.

How soon people forget the team USC lost to is the team PSU torched.

[bmezz]

You all are so cocky-funny to forget USC lost to the team Penn State demolished but USC is too good to play Penn State? I cannot wait for the Lions to meet the Trojans and have a great game- try having some class USC fans. You lost to a lousy, unranked team and you have a chance for a great Rose bowl- nothing is never a enough for spoiled childen huh?

[PSU Almnus]

Penn State a "lesser bowl opponent? Huh? As I recall, Penn State beat Oregon State and USC lost to Oregon State. And Penn State is not Ohio State - Penn State wins bowl games. Don't think for a minute USC has an easy time with Penn State on Jan 1. But in any event, Penn State fans feel the same way - we would have liked to play someone a little higher ranked than USC. But the bottom line is both programs lost a game they should have won and have therefore gotten what they deserved - a lesser bowl game (the Rose Bowl). Crazy stuff.

[Dave]

The Big 12 is so overrated. Penn State a lesser opponent? I want you to keep your blog post up even after PSU stomps USC.

[Ryan]

Really? Maybe USC shouldnt have lost to Oregon St. then ya hack. How guys like you get jobs writing biased garbage like this is beyond me.

Oh wait, that same OSU team that beat USC is the same team we CRUSHED 2 weeks earlier.

[Your coach has two first names, and one is a girls.]

Adam, friendly wager on the PSU/USC match? The Big 12 has no defenses. Sheez.

[Matthew]

Scenario 3: Destroy UCLA. Oklahoma (presumably, BCS standings haven't come out yet) loses to Missouri. The game is in Missouri, Oklahoma will be overconfident after beating both TTU and OSU. That leaves the #2 spot open. Pollsters have to decide between USC or Texas.

Texas has nonconference wins over UTEP, Florida Atlantic, Rice, and Arkansas and had to play lousy teams Baylor and Texas A&M. Texas did not win their conference let alone their own division (something that held Georgia from playing for the title last year).

USC has nonconference wins over Virginia, Ohio State, and Notre Dame. And we also had to play lousy teams Washington and Washington State. We won our conference outright. USC has the worse loss though, 6 pts. to an unranked team on the road. Texas lost by 6 to the #7 ranked team on a last second touchdown pass.

The pollsters decide to do the right thing and decide they want to see a real game (USC's defense vs. Florida's Offense).

Of course I know it is highly improbable, especially since the computers like Texas so much and well USC had to play Washington and Washington State. But it's not over until the final games have been played.

[sparky]

Keep thinking the Lions are a lesser opponent.

[The Rock]

Wow Adam ... I guess that you have not been watching a whoile lot of football this year.
Penn State would beat Texas, it would be a good game against Oklohoma ,,, and they would crush Texas Tech for sure.
To call Penn State a "lesser bowl opponent" is both disrespectful and ignorant. I sure hope you are getting paid to right these articles ....

[yeah]

can't wait till PSU pastes USC in the Rose Bowl.

[stephen buys]

How do they allow foolish people like you to write? Get a life

[Ed]

Penn State a lesser opponent is absurd.

[Rusty Buckets]

Apparently, Penn State fans have nothing better to do but read the SC blog on the LA Times. Talk your smack now, because come Jan. 2, while waiting to board a plane at LAX, it will dawn on you that it was a huge mistake to travel 3000 miles and spend $5000 to watch your team lose by 4 TDs. Way to start off the new year. Prove us wrong...

You're forgetting about another common opponent-Ohio State, which you beat by a TD. As I recall, USC beat Ohio State by 32. It goes to show that mathematical comparisons don't always work that well. How many overrated, slow BigTen teams must USC beat to make you realize that you simply can't compete (Iowa, Michigan twice, Illinois, Ohio State).

[CM]

There is a problem with your analysis in that the Big-12 is almost certain to send 2 teams to BCS bowls (OU and UT). This shifts everyone up, so the Big-12 third place team (TT) goes to the Cotton Bowl and the Holiday Bowl would end up with the fourth place team (Okie State or Mizzou). With the Oregon State loss went any real chance for USC to play one of the Big-12 "elite" teams.

[pk-mesa]

The Rose bowl game was always known as the granddaddy of them all (Keith Jackson) to me, and I still consider it as such. Ucla didn’t take the Rose bowl down, the BCS did it has ruin all the old bowls from New Years day. I feel the players at USC don’t think the Rose bowl isn’t good enough, but would like to travel to another bowl. So enough with this bashing back and forth, I mean really is it going to make your life or anybody else life any better I think not.

[Justin]

I find it funny that the people in LA, who consistently blame the "East Coast Media Bias" (which DOES exist, btw) have their own "West Coast Bias" towards PSU.

Have many PSU games have you California people watched this season?

My guess would be 1 at most (probably when you were rooting for Ohio State to beat PSU to help your SOS argument.

So to refer to this PSU squad as a bunch of plodding oafs from the Midwest would be sorely inaccurate.

I don't think that there's any rational college football fan in America who wouldn't concede that on paper, USC has had the best talent in the nation, year in and year out this decade.

The problem is that year in and year out, USC chokes like a dog to some lame-ass Pac 10 team that they should have schooled by 4 TDs.

You guys have no one to blame but yourselves for not playing for the championship.

I can't wait for this game personally, because I can assure you unlike the choking dogs from Ann Arbor and Columbus, PSU shows up in bowl games, and actually wins them.

Good luck on Jan 1st.

[i hate adam and rusty buckets]

Adam - be sure to write an "I was wrong again" article after your spanking. Rusty Buckets - I'll look for your follow-up comment too.

[THAT SC GanGsta]

Idiots, here is the Final word on Big 10 vs. Pac- 10. Your Penn State Nittany Lions, who I respect, will get embarassed by the mighty men of troy in the same fashion as Ohio State did earlier this year, Illinois did last year, and Michigan and Iowa have earlier this decade.

Our Defense Needs the test of a Florida, Oklahoma, or Texas to prove our true mettle!

[Jim]

No question that Penn State has a huge, proud fan base, eh? In the future, Mr. Rose, keep in mind that it's generally good practice to provide some shred of justification for any claim you wish to make in your article. Simply stating "Penn State is a lesser opponent" without any facts or anything else to support your claim is lazy and poor. If you are simply trying to generate a pissing contest, there are already tens of blogs out there doing exactly that. Unoriginal and poor, this article.