USC's five paths to the BCS title game

Football players like to get physical. Even Olivia Newton-John liked to get physical. But this is the BCS era. Let's get technical.

Following up on this weekend's commentary about USC's (non-existent) hopes of playing for the BCS Championship game, I hacked into the BCS computers and calculated all the possible outcomes.

[NOTE: The following math was quite a bit off, though all the scenarios remain the same. Click here for a post that better explains the numbers.]

Assuming the Trojans run the table, they have less than a one-quarter-of-one-percent-chance of making the BCS Championship Game. And that's before weighing in obvious things that Vegas would consider. If you think Texas Tech will beat Baylor (hint: it will), the hope gets much slimmer. But, hey, maybe the Citadel can beat Florida. In 2080.

The BCS rankings came out yesterday and they're identical to last week, at least at the top:

1. Alabama (11-0)
2. Texas Tech (10-0)
3. Texas (10-1)
4. Florida (9-1)
5. Oklahoma (9-1)
6. USC (9-1)

What boxes out the Trojans is that the five teams ahead of them all play in the same two leagues and have a conference championship game. Even though they might beat up on each other in the home stretch, at least two should to wind up with a "prettier" finish than USC. If I've done my math right (you're welcome to check), there are 11 games or potential games that are out of USC's control resulting in 2,048 scenarios. Of those, a whopping six could get USC into the BCS title game, with the Trojans jumping a mountain of two-loss teams. Again, this assumes Trojan victories over Notre Dame and UCLA.

If you hit any of these parlays in Vegas, drinks are on you. For the rest of your life.

SCENARIO 1: SEC swamps itself, a.k.a. USC's best hope

• Florida loses to the Citadel and/or Florida State.
• Florida beats Alabama.
• Note: Even if Alabama loses to Auburn, it will be a one-loss SEC Champ if it beats Florida -- so it would probably go ahead of USC on "style points."
• FINAL RECORDS: SEC champ Florida (10-3 or 11-2), Alabama (12-1 or 11-2 depending on Auburn game).

SCENARIO 2: Big chaos in the Big 12, Spread Option 1

• Texas loses to Texas A&M.
• Texas Tech beats Oklahoma.
• Texas Tech loses to Baylor.
• Texas Tech loses to Missouri in the conference championship.
• FINAL RECORDS: Big-12 champ Mizzou (11-2 or 10-3 depending on Kansas game), Texas (10-2), Texas Tech (11-2), Oklahoma (10-2 or 9-3 depending on Oklahoma State game).

SCENARIO 3: Big chaos in the Big 12, Spread Option 2

• Texas loses to Texas A&M.
• Oklahoma beats Texas Tech.
• Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State.
• Texas Tech loses to Baylor.
• Oklahoma loses to Missouri in the conference championship.
• FINAL RECORDS: Big-12 champ Mizzou (11-2 or 10-3 depending on Kansas game), Texas (10-2), Oklahoma (10-2), Texas Tech (10-2).

SCENARIO 4: Big chaos in the Big 12, Spread Option 3

• Texas beats Texas A&M
• Oklahoma beats Texas Tech
• Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State
• Texas Tech loses to Baylor
• Texas loses to Missouri in the conference championship
• FINAL RECORDS: Big-12 champ Mizzou (11-2 or 10-3 depending on Kansas game), Texas (11-2), Texas Tech (10-2), Oklahoma (10-2).

SCENARIO 5: Ultimate chaos in the Big 12 and world at large

• Texas loses to Texas A&M.
• Oklahoma beats Texas Tech.
• Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State.
• Texas Tech loses to Baylor.
• Conference championship is between Mizzou and another 2-loss team, leaving the winner totally irrelevant. 
• FINAL RECORDS: It doesn't really matter. The world would be over, anyway. Dogs and cats, living together ... it would just be frightening.

Gasp. I need oxygen like LenDale White after a 10-yard pickup.

All five of these scenarios are unlikely, but there's another one that stands a reasonable chance. It could break the BCS machine for good. All true Americans, including Barack Obama, are rooting for this to happen:

• Oklahoma beats Texas Tech.
• Texas Tech beats Baylor.
• Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State.
• Texas beats Texas A&M.
• Mizzou beats the Big 12 South rep, which would be Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma, depending on who has the highest BCS ranking.
• FINAL RECORDS: Big 12 champ Mizzou is 11-2 or 10-3 depending on the Kansas game. One of the three other teams is 11-2. Two of the other teams are 11-1.

Then what? You can't pick a two-loss champ (Mizzou) over a one-loss champ (USC), right? But how do you ignore two one-loss teams that were left out of their conference championship but finished with a better record than the two teams that played in it? They would have the same record as the Trojans (assuming those Notre Dame and UCLA victories) and would have played stiffer competition.

Maybe if this happens, somebody will get physical with the BCS organizers.

-- Adam Rose

POSTSCRIPT (because I don't know how to make a sidebar)

I wasn't kidding -- if you want to check my math on the number of scenarios, I counted 11 games (including potential matchups) with two possible outcomes each. Raise 2 to the 11th power on your trusty scientific calculator (we all carry those around, right?) and you get 2,048. Here are the games:

Oklahoma-Texas Tech
Oklahoma-Oklahoma State
Texas Tech-Baylor
Texas-Texas A&M
Mizzou-Texas or Mizzou-Texas Tech or Mizzou-Oklahoma
Florida-Alabama
Alabama-Auburn
Florida-Citadel
Florida-Florida State

If you're a math wiz, let me know if I over-weighted the three Big 12 championship game possibilities or Florida's remaining regular season games.

Comments

[Rick]

USC's chances of going to the BCS title are small, but way over 1%... your math is not so much incorrect as irrelevant. There are dozens of mathematical situations where USC can go to the title. For example, if the SEC 'swamps itself,' the Big 12 becomes irrelevant and can play out however it wants. Look at it this way:

What are the odds of Florida losing to Florida State and then beating Alabama? Let's say Florida has a 10% chance of losing to Florida state, and a 50% chance of beating Alabama. 10% multiplied by 50% is 5%. If you agree with those odds, than you would have to say USC has a 5% chance of going to the title (we'll assume USC's odds of winning out are 100%). That's 5% just for your first scenario. The chances of a Big 12 catastrophe would be added onto your first scenario, making the odds of USC in the title game even higher (although not by much).

[1988Trojan]

The scenarios aren't all that outrageous for USC to get in the BCS title game, though it is unlikely. Florida losing to Florida St., then defeating Alabama is not all that ridiculous. Alabama losing to Auburn then defeating Florida isn't all that weird either. And either of those could have USC ranked ahead of the SEC champ Florida (with 2 losses) or Alabama (with one loss just like USC but to a lesser opponent in Auburn).

The Big XII is probably simpler, if whomever gets into the Big XII title game loses to Missouri. You would have a Big XII champ with two losses, and USC would likely get moved up in the human polls as a PAC 10 co-champ with one loss.

Arguments about style points could be that USC might have the most impressive win over a top 10 BCS ranked team, with a 35-3 defeat of Ohio St. Texas beat OU but only by a score. Texas Tech beat Texas at the buzzer. OU lost to Texas already. Florida might well blow out Alabama, but most likely Saban's team will be in that game. And Bama likely won't blow out the Gators. Neither of those top teams in the country showed in the regular season the ability to dominate a top 10 team like USC did to Ohio St., and that might sway some poll voters.

[George John]

Adam, great job.

Trojans do not quit, so I am still holding out against the daunting odds of finishing in the top 2 in the final BCS ratings.

Next year - we have a playoff, as our new president ssues a presidential edict against a private institution (the BCS), forcing college football D-1 to have a playoff for season 2009.

Geo

[Kevin]

Here's how USC can still make the national championship game:

1) OK State beats OU (TT goes to the BIG 12 championship because of the head-to-head with UT - not based on BCS if there is only a two-way tie. TT may win, but after their OU 44 point loss to OU they are irrelevant! Thanks for playing! They could still feasibly lose to MO though in the BIG 12 championship regardless)

2) FLA State beats FLA this Saturday and FLA pounds Alabama in the SEC championship (Alabama could even lose a rivalry game this weekend to Auburn)

Under these scenarios, USC would move up 3 spaces to #2 and probably face UT in the title game. (OU, FLA, & Alabama would drop below them)

Stranger things have happened when the pressure gets turned up at the end of the year. We'll know for sure after this coming weekend as to whether or not they are still alive.

UT fans: You don't have to win the conference to go to the NC game. Just cheer for OK State this weekend and their win will put you in.